Taxas de hipoteca Luxemburgo: previsão de 12 meses a partir dos preços do BCE

Taxas de hipoteca Luxemburgo: previsão de 12 meses a partir dos preços do BCE

Fixed-rate mortgage · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank

Estimated, not live: The ECB MFI interest-rate series for this member did not return a value on the last run. The figures below are periodically recalibrated estimates, not a live reading.

Will Luxemburgo mortgage rates go up or down over the next 12 months?

Higher +56bp

Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical Fixed-rate mortgage in Luxemburgo rises from 3,55% today to 4,11% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.

Today
3,55%
Fixed-rate mortgage
Implied in 12 months
4,11%
2027-08
Implied change
+56bp
Policy rate 2,25% → 2,98%

Dados em 2026-09-05. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.

Mortgage Rate
3,55%
Fixed-rate mortgage
ECB Deposit Rate
2,25%
Shared by all 20 members
Spread vs ECB
+1,30pp
Lender margin over policy
10Y Govt Bond
2,70%
Harmonised long-term rate

How mortgages work in Luxemburgo

Luxembourg has a mixed market, with fixed periods of five to fifteen years alongside variable loans. Very high property prices push loan sizes up, so small changes in the quoted rate translate into large absolute changes in monthly payments, and rate sensitivity of demand is correspondingly high.

The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in Luxemburgo, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.

Implied 12-month path for Luxemburgo

The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.

MonthImplied ECB Deposit RateProjected Fixed-rate mortgageSpread
2026-102,47%3,59%+1,12pp
2026-102,47%3,62%+1,15pp
2026-112,55%3,66%+1,11pp
2026-122,68%3,72%+1,04pp
2027-012,68%3,77%+1,08pp
2027-022,75%3,82%+1,07pp
2027-032,86%3,88%+1,03pp
2027-042,86%3,93%+1,08pp
2027-052,92%3,98%+1,07pp
2027-062,96%4,03%+1,07pp
2027-072,98%4,08%+1,10pp
2027-082,98%4,11%+1,13pp

Luxemburgo compared with the rest of the euro area

CountryTypical ProductMortgage RateSpread vs ECB
EslováquiaFixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr)4,30%+2,05pp
EstôniaEuribor-linked variable4,20%+1,95pp
LetôniaEuribor-linked variable4,00%+1,75pp
GréciaFixed-period mortgage3,90%+1,65pp
LituâniaEuribor-linked variable3,90%+1,65pp
Países Baixos10-30-Year fixed3,85%+1,60pp
ChipreFixed-period mortgage3,85%+1,60pp
Itália20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso3,75%+1,50pp
Irlanda3-5-Year fixed3,75%+1,50pp
Bélgica20-Year fixed3,70%+1,45pp
Alemanha10-Year Festzinsbindung3,65%+1,40pp
Áustria10-15-Year fixed3,60%+1,35pp
EslovêniaFixed-rate mortgage3,60%+1,35pp
PortugalMixed / fixed-period mortgage3,55%+1,30pp
CroáciaFixed-rate mortgage3,55%+1,30pp
LuxemburgoFixed-rate mortgage3,55%+1,30pp
França20-25-Year taux fixe3,45%+1,20pp
Espanha15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo3,35%+1,10pp
FinlândiaEuribor-linked variable3,35%+1,10pp
MaltaVariable-rate mortgage3,30%+1,05pp

Frequently Asked Questions

On current market pricing, no. Futures pricing implies the typical Fixed-rate mortgage in Luxemburgo rises from 3,55% today to 4,11% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. That path assumes the European Central Bank policy rate follows the futures curve and the mortgage spread returns to its long-run average of 1,30 percentage points. It is what the market implies, not a forecast.

The typical mortgage in Luxemburgo is the Fixed-rate mortgage, currently 3,55% as of 2026-09-05. The European Central Bank policy rate is 2,25%, so borrowers pay a spread of 1,30 percentage points over the policy rate, covering the lender's funding cost, credit risk and margin.

About 85% of a European Central Bank policy rate change reaches the typical mortgage rate in Luxemburgo, and it takes roughly 4 months to get there. The rest is absorbed by the lender's spread, which moves with bond yields, funding conditions and competition rather than with the policy rate itself.

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