Euribor-linked variable · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical Euribor-linked variable in Estônia rises from 4,20% today to 4,95% by 2027-09, about 75 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
Dados em 2026-10-20. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Estonia is the most Euribor-exposed mortgage market in the euro area, with essentially all lending floating against 6-month Euribor. Bank margins are wide relative to the western euro area because the market is concentrated among a small number of Nordic-owned banks, which is why the Estonian spread over the ECB rate sits above the euro-area average even though the index tracks it exactly.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in Estônia, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| Month | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | Projected Euribor-linked variable | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2,50% | 4,25% | +1,75pp |
| 2026-11 | 2,51% | 4,28% | +1,78pp |
| 2026-12 | 2,73% | 4,36% | +1,63pp |
| 2027-01 | 2,73% | 4,42% | +1,69pp |
| 2027-02 | 2,81% | 4,48% | +1,67pp |
| 2027-03 | 2,99% | 4,57% | +1,58pp |
| 2027-04 | 2,99% | 4,64% | +1,65pp |
| 2027-05 | 3,06% | 4,71% | +1,65pp |
| 2027-06 | 3,14% | 4,78% | +1,65pp |
| 2027-07 | 3,19% | 4,85% | +1,66pp |
| 2027-08 | 3,19% | 4,90% | +1,71pp |
| 2027-09 | 3,21% | 4,95% | +1,74pp |
| Country | Typical Product | Mortgage Rate | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eslováquia | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4,30% | +1,80pp |
| Estônia | Euribor-linked variable | 4,20% | +1,70pp |
| Letônia | Euribor-linked variable | 4,00% | +1,50pp |
| Grécia | Fixed-period mortgage | 3,90% | +1,40pp |
| Lituânia | Euribor-linked variable | 3,90% | +1,40pp |
| Países Baixos | 10-30-Year fixed | 3,85% | +1,35pp |
| Chipre | Fixed-period mortgage | 3,85% | +1,35pp |
| Itália | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3,75% | +1,25pp |
| Irlanda | 3-5-Year fixed | 3,75% | +1,25pp |
| Bélgica | 20-Year fixed | 3,70% | +1,20pp |
| Alemanha | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3,65% | +1,15pp |
| Áustria | 10-15-Year fixed | 3,60% | +1,10pp |
| Eslovênia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,60% | +1,10pp |
| Portugal | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3,55% | +1,05pp |
| Croácia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,55% | +1,05pp |
| Luxemburgo | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,55% | +1,05pp |
| França | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3,45% | +0,95pp |
| Espanha | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3,35% | +0,85pp |
| Finlândia | Euribor-linked variable | 3,35% | +0,85pp |
| Malta | Variable-rate mortgage | 3,30% | +0,80pp |